The International Energy Agency (IEA) 's estimated expectation on the global solar market has long seriously underestimated the annual actual installation data. We should put forward our warning about this.
The IEA has just released its five-year predicted report of renewable energy, including solar energy. But from the perspective of industry health warnings, there are critical fields that still need to be highlighted.
From 2019 to 2024, it is estimated that there will be increased projects of which the installment is 700GW in total according to IEA's five-year forecast. PV project takes up 60% in the total 1200GW new energy project. It means, taking 700GW for example, that the annual PV installment will reach 140GW.
From the source of Bloomberg's new energy finance forecast in the second quarter of 2019, the estimated annual PV installment will not be more than 124GW by 2021, the average annual installment is 121GW during the three years.
Wood Mackenzie estimated in his latest forecast that the predicted annual PV installment will be up to 120GW-125GW by 2024.with prosperous development of PV industry all across the globe in the next few years, PV component (Solar PV Junction Box, PV Connector, and PV Cable )industry will meet a brand-new opportunity.
Is the utility PV project going well?
What people take interest in IEA's latest forecast is its focus on DG. Business in DG has achieved remarkable growth.
IEA believes that the total installment of the DG market will be over 300GW according to the five-year forecast. By 2024, the cumulative DG market will reach 600GW. The IEA points out that this represents only 6% of the potential of distributed photovoltaic technologies, given the total area of available roofs.
"We are getting more and more motivation to enhance the development of PV with the decreasing cost ", said Dr. Birol, the chief executive of IEA.
Reasons below contributed to people's positive view of PV development:
The cost of generating electricity for the DG system is lower than the retail price. IEA predicts that the cost will further decrease by 15%-30% by 2024, letting PV technology be more attractive and promote its utility across the world.
IEA believes that the number of solar roofing systems for household use will double by 2024, reaching 100 million. Australia, Belgium, California, Netherland, and Austria will be large markets.
Dr. Birol added: "The potential of distributed photovoltaic is impressive and proper management of the development of distributed photovoltaic is needed to balance the different interests of PV system owners, consumers, and energy and distribution companies. "Without compromising power safety, the IEA is ready to advise the government on how to take advantage of this rapidly evolving technology."